Share this article Share Share Share 4 Share 4 The UK will grow about 0.4% in 2020 compared to the previous year’s growth of 1.2%, according to ONS data.
This was the biggest increase since June 2020, which is when the government first announced its forecasts for the economy in May 2020.
The ONS forecast the economy will gain 0.2% in the first quarter of 2021, and 0.1% in June 2021.
It’s also forecast the unemployment rate will fall to 7.2%.
The rate will then increase to 9.3% in 2021, 9.4%, and 9.7% in 2022, and 10% in 2023.
The economy is forecast to add 1.5 million jobs in 2021 and 2019.
The unemployment rate is forecast at 8.2.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) says this is a big lift to the economy, adding that this could be achieved in 2021 by reducing unemployment rates by one percentage point and adding an extra £8bn to the budget.
However, the ONS says it’s not enough to get the UK’s economy on track to reach full employment, adding the Government must “catch up with” the rest of the OECD economies to achieve that.
The government’s forecast assumes the economy recovers by 2020, with no further recession and no “negative spillover effects”.
The ONSB says that if economic growth does not reach full-employment by 2020 the economy is likely to slow, the budget deficit will be £7.7bn higher in 2021 than it would otherwise have been, and the unemployment will rise to 7% by 2023, with the rate of unemployment falling to 10%.
“This is a good outcome for the country, but it is not a great outcome,” economist Michael Saunders told the BBC.
“If the economy fails to recover in 2021 then it is going to take a decade to get back to full employment.”
The government says the economic outlook will improve from 2021 as it builds on the steps taken to stimulate growth, including the “Great Britain Stronger In” strategy and “jobs and growth”.
It says the “strongest economy in the OECD is now the UK”.
In a report published today, the OECD said the UK is one of only two economies that will be better off in 2021 compared to 2020, despite rising unemployment and rising public debt.
“The ONSPE forecasts a stronger economy than it has for the last five years, with a GDP growth of 4.1%, the lowest since 2009 and the best result since 2009,” the OECD says.
“We expect GDP to increase by an additional 0.6% in 2019, by 0.7%.”
The UK has the strongest employment prospects in the region, with its labour force participation rate of 63% and labour productivity of 4,906 per cent.
“The UK’s growth will improve by 0,8% in 2018 and by 0% in 2017.
The OECD expects growth to grow by 2% in 2016, and by 3.1 per cent in 2020.
However the OECD also warns that the UK may struggle to meet its commitments to the OECD and the UN climate agreement.
The UK is also predicted to be in a negative position in the global outlook, as the OECD expects the economy to shrink by 2.5% in 2030 and by 2%.”
We have some room to recover, but if we do not, the outlook will remain weak for the next few years,” the OBR says.
This article originally appeared on The Conversation.